Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
25% Chance
International actors move quickly because Abyei is already monitored by the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei and sits between two unstable states. The African Union, IGAD, and the UN Security Council push for an investigation, civilian protection measures, and a halt to drone operations near populated areas.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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