Possible scenario
Prolonged Border Fighting
34% Chance
The most likely adverse path is a continued low-intensity conflict concentrated near border districts and suspected TTP sanctuaries. Both sides absorb limited casualties while keeping the confrontation below the threshold of a formal war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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