Possible scenario
Managed De-escalation
42% Chance
Pakistan and the Taliban limit the fighting after another round of airstrikes and border fire, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and China pressing both sides to avoid a wider conflict. Islamabad keeps pressure on Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan networks while Kabul avoids direct escalation against Pakistani population centers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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