Possible scenario
Coal Margins Persist
40% Chance
German coal-fired generation remains in the money as low gas storage, high winter power prices, and reliability needs keep plants running. The market treats the margin recovery as a sector-specific boost for dispatchable generators rather than a broad macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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