Possible scenario
Tight Supply Rally
38% Chance
The most likely path is that price gains continue because homeowners with low mortgage rates still avoid selling, keeping inventory constrained. Demand remains selective but sufficient in higher-income metros, allowing national prices to grind higher despite weak affordability.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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