Possible scenario
Affordability Freeze Persists
27% Chance
Price growth proves less a sign of a healthy recovery than a symptom of a frozen market with few transactions. Buyers remain constrained by mortgage rates and income gaps, leaving volumes depressed even as headline prices rise.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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