Possible scenario
Interim Deal Emerges
35% Chance
Iran's 7 point plan becomes the basis for a limited interim agreement rather than a final settlement. The United States and European intermediaries accept a controlled asset-release mechanism, while Iran offers verifiable nuclear access and partial de-escalation around Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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