Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Escalates
20% Chance
The 7 point plan fails to gain traction and Iran leans harder on its prior linkage between the Gaza blockade and the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and Gulf partners increase naval activity, raising immediate oil and shipping-risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.