Possible scenario
U.S. Limited Response
40% Chance
Washington is most likely to answer the record attack day with a larger naval escort mission, air-defense deployments, and limited strikes on launch sites rather than an immediate broad war. Iran may test the expanded posture, but both sides still have incentives to avoid a full regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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