Possible scenario
Prolonged Attrition
22% Chance
Iran may keep the strait functionally closed without provoking a decisive U.S. campaign, using drones, mines, missiles, and legal threats to deter civilian shipping. This would create a grinding disruption with sustained oil volatility and rising insurance costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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