Possible scenario
Brokered Shipping Pause
25% Chance
A temporary diplomatic pause remains plausible because Iran can claim leverage from the closure while buyers, Gulf states, and China press for limited energy flows. This path would not settle the dispute, but it could reduce near-term attack risk and lower the immediate oil premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.3%
- Energy -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.