Possible scenario
Naval Escalation
30% Chance
The collapse in vessel traffic increases pressure on Washington and Gulf states to force a reopening. A miscalculation involving Iranian boats, drones, or missile batteries could quickly turn the shipping crisis into a direct military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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