Possible scenario
Managed Disruption Persists
40% Chance
The most likely path is a tense but contained disruption in which Iran maintains leverage without triggering a full regional war. Naval escorts, war-risk insurance limits, and selective cargo seizures keep volumes depressed but not at zero.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.