Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
20% Chance
Iran may accept a mediated off-ramp if it judges that leverage has been established and further closure risks direct US retaliation. Oman, Qatar, the UAE, and European maritime authorities are plausible channels for a limited shipping arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.