Possible scenario
Taiwan Pressure Rises
20% Chance
Xi may compensate for signs of internal military disruption by ordering visible exercises around Taiwan or in the South China Sea. This would demonstrate that the PLA remains operational, but it would also raise near-term geopolitical risk for semiconductors, shipping, and regional equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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