Possible scenario
Purge Widens Further
25% Chance
The expulsion of Zhang and Liu becomes the opening of another phase rather than the end of the PLA purge. Investigators revisit missile, aerospace, shipbuilding, and procurement networks linked to Zhang’s long influence over equipment modernization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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