Possible scenario
Orderly Xi Consolidation
42% Chance
Xi Jinping uses the expulsions of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli to complete a controlled purge rather than trigger a broader command crisis. The Central Military Commission moves quickly to restore visible hierarchy, signaling that combat readiness and procurement will continue under more politically reliable officers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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