Possible scenario
Riots Spread Further
27% Chance
The Limoges town hall burning becomes a rallying symbol for cost-of-living protesters and anti-police demonstrators. Weekend mobilizations in larger cities create wider disruption to retail, tourism, and transport, though still short of a systemic European market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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