Possible scenario
Concessions De-Escalate Crisis
23% Chance
The government pairs policing with economic concessions aimed at food, fuel, student support, and municipal rebuilding. This reduces protest momentum by splitting cost-of-living demonstrators from more radical anti-police groups.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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