Possible scenario
Shipping Disruption Widens
30% Chance
Even without a declared closure of the Strait, shipowners, insurers, and charterers slow movements through Hormuz. The immediate market impact is concentrated in crude, refined products, tankers, airlines, and risk-sensitive credit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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