Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
16% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly because Gulf exporters, insurers, and Asian buyers have strong incentives to keep Hormuz open. Iran claims it has answered the U.S. strike, while Washington avoids a broader campaign if attacks stop.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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