Possible scenario
Sustained Drone Attrition
42% Chance
Russia continues a high-volume drone campaign against western Ukraine to exploit Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors and strain air defenses protecting logistics routes from Poland. The campaign remains inside Ukraine, avoiding a direct NATO trigger but keeping regional risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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