Possible scenario
NATO Border Incident
20% Chance
A Russian drone or debris crosses into Polish airspace during attacks on western Ukraine, reviving concerns that Russia is testing NATO's eastern flank. The base case is heightened alerts and consultations, not direct NATO military retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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