Possible scenario
Air Defense Resupply
28% Chance
The attack accelerates Western decisions on interceptor transfers, radar coverage, and emergency procurement. The most likely path is incremental support rather than a dramatic policy shift, with defense equities benefiting more than broad markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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