Possible scenario
Race remains unsettled
20% Chance
The primary stays too close to call because of Arizona's early-vote and ballot-processing dynamics. Sinema's vote becomes part of a broader debate about crossover participation, late ballots, and Maricopa County's central role.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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