Possible scenario
Feely wins nomination
35% Chance
Jay Feely converts Kyrsten Sinema's public vote into a broader electability argument and wins the Arizona Republican primary. The most plausible path is a narrow but clear victory driven by Maricopa County Republicans, independents eligible under Arizona rules, and suburban voters wary of harder-right alternatives.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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