Possible scenario
Full Troop Deployment
25% Chance
Syria agrees to provide a sizable force for the Saudi-backed side in Yemen, likely in exchange for financing, equipment, and deeper Arab reintegration. This would mark a material escalation but still may be managed if the troops remain away from direct Red Sea shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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