Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Escalates
18% Chance
A smaller but realistic path is that Republicans or Democrats convert the dispute into a formal committee process. This could include a perjury referral, ethics complaint, additional sworn testimony, or demands for communications between Smith, Garland-era DOJ officials, and Senate investigators.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.