Possible scenario
Outage Extends Longer
30% Chance
The Joliet outage proves more complicated than the market initially expects, keeping a meaningful share of refinery capacity offline. Chicago gasoline remains the highest-priced major US market, and Midwest refiners with available supply benefit from stronger margins.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- XOM-0.7%
- PSX+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.