Counterintelligence Clampdown
−0.1%
The most likely path is a coordinated UK-US intelligence and law-enforcement response rather than immediate military retaliation. London and Washington use ITV’s disclosures to justify sanctions, indictments, travel bans, and pressure on Baghdad to act against the identified network.
What it moves
- Industrials+0.5%
- Energy+0.2%
- Market volatility
- Oil prices
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.