Possible scenario
Low-Level Prosecution
25% Chance
Investigators may still decide that the petrol and the suspects' proximity to RAF Fairford justify prosecution, even without viable explosives. This would frame the matter as a potential arson or disruption attempt rather than a confirmed bomb plot.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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