Possible scenario
Renewed Houthi Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis treat the Saudi strikes as the start of a new phase and resume long-range operations against Saudi targets. This scenario is less likely than containment but plausible because Riyadh has rejected the latest truce offer and the airport attack caused significant casualties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Services -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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