Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Diplomatic channels regain momentum because both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis want to avoid returning to the pre-2022 war tempo. Riyadh keeps military pressure in place but allows Oman and the UN to pursue a pause tied to halting attacks on Saudi cities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.7%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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