Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation Cycle
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues precision strikes on Houthi launch sites, depots, and command nodes, but both sides avoid a broader campaign after the Riyadh airport deaths. Oman and the UN use the pause after the initial retaliation to test whether the Houthis will stop long-range attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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