Possible scenario
US Ban Imposed
20% Chance
Negotiations fail and Washington moves to restrict diesel exports, either to Europe specifically or more broadly. This is less likely than a compromise because it would hurt US refiners, but the repeated public threats make it a credible tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.1%
- Industrials -2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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