Possible scenario
Reserve Deal Succeeds
45% Chance
Brussels and London agree to a coordinated diesel stock release large enough for the White House to stand down its export-ban threat. This is the most likely path because all sides have incentives to prevent a transatlantic supply rupture before winter.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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