Possible scenario
Deadline Extended
25% Chance
The US stops short of imposing an export ban but keeps the threat alive while technical talks continue. This outcome fits the political need to show pressure on Europe while avoiding immediate damage to US refiners and allies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- PSX+0.5%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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