Possible scenario
Regional Allies Targeted
28% Chance
Iran or aligned forces act on the expanded target doctrine by striking Israeli, Jordanian or Gulf-linked assets rather than only U.S. positions. This would be a clear escalation but still short of a declared regional war if casualties and damage are contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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