Possible scenario
Energy Shipping Disruption
21% Chance
Iran uses maritime pressure in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or near Saudi and UAE energy nodes to show that retaliation can carry global economic costs. This route is plausible because it targets Western and allied interests without requiring direct strikes on U.S. bases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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