Possible scenario
Calibrated Proxy Pressure
36% Chance
Iran expands the menu of retaliation targets but keeps action deniable through allied militias and cyber units. This is the most likely path because Tehran can answer domestic pressure without forcing an immediate U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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