Possible scenario
Beijing Contains Fallout
27% Chance
China’s regulators move quickly to show control over Moonshot while avoiding an admission that state agencies knowingly used Claude. Beijing’s priority is to prevent the scandal from justifying wider U.S. restrictions on Chinese AI developers.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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