Possible scenario
Wider EV Settlement
25% Chance
The hybrid agreement becomes a template for a broader settlement over Chinese electric vehicle tariffs. Both sides have incentives to avoid a prolonged tariff spiral, especially if European automakers continue to rely on Chinese sales and Chinese producers want predictable access to the EU market.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +2.4%
- Industrials +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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