Possible scenario
Managed Hybrid Truce
42% Chance
The WTO agreement becomes a narrow, enforceable compromise covering plug-in hybrids and hybrid vehicle classifications while leaving most battery-electric vehicle tariffs intact. This is the most likely path because it lets Brussels claim subsidy discipline and lets Beijing preserve export access in a fast-growing segment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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