Possible scenario
Draft Used As Leverage
35% Chance
Washington withholds the draft to extract concessions on auto rules of origin, dairy access, procurement, and dispute-settlement language. Ottawa keeps talks alive while preparing sector support, making a delayed negotiation more likely than an immediate rupture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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