Possible scenario
Autos Compromise Emerges
30% Chance
The dispute narrows into a negotiation over Trump’s proposed 50% U.S.-made auto threshold and related tariff relief. Canada accepts some auto-sector changes in exchange for a transition period and exemptions for existing supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.5%
- Industrials +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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