Possible scenario
Political Rift Widens
20% Chance
Musk's statement becomes part of a broader U.S. political fight over Ukraine aid and Zelensky's leadership. The operational service remains mostly intact, but investors price slightly higher geopolitical and policy uncertainty around defense support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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