Possible scenario
Absence Gets Explanation
18% Chance
The campaign eventually provides a concrete explanation for the 12-day absence, likely involving health, family, or security rather than campaign collapse. The impact depends on whether the explanation is mundane and verifiable or points to a more serious disruption.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.