Possible scenario
Limited Key Recoveries
25% Chance
A smaller but more disruptive scenario is that researchers or attackers demonstrate recovery of keys from exposed or poorly generated legacy wallets. The damage is likely concentrated in old, already-exposed addresses rather than modern exchange custody systems, but confidence in public-key crypto assets takes a hit.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Finance -0.4%
Tickers
- MARA-6.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.