Possible scenario
Controversy Stays Contained
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the expungement remains a symbolic domestic controversy rather than a destabilizing political event. Herzog’s office frames the decision as rehabilitation after years since the Hebron shooting, while the IDF and legal establishment register disapproval without escalating into an institutional confrontation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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