Possible scenario
Tariffs Anchor Earnings
40% Chance
The most likely path is that 50% U.S. steel tariffs remain broadly intact and Cleveland-Cliffs converts stronger pricing into higher margins. Auto, appliance, and service-center contracts support management's $4 billion 2027 EBITDA target, while Stelco adds scale in North America.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.0%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- CLF+6.5%
- STLD+2.3%
- NUE+2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.